Reverse Cause-Effect Relationship and Correlation by Vicky Jiang on Prezi
Actually, "Cause" (capital C) is a term properly belonging to God, and His "Effect" (capital E) is His Son. This entails a set of Cause and Effect relationships totally. reverse cause-and-effect, accidental or presumed. Moreover, the association does not have to be linear. 1. Cause-and-effect relationship: A relationship in which. In statistics, many statistical tests calculate correlations between variables and when two Determining whether there is an actual cause-and-effect relationship Reverse causation or reverse causality or wrong direction is an informal fallacy .
Also, as you work your way back through the cause and effect in the process of creating your own story, you will often find events that have no cause yet, which is a blank spot in your story, a gap in its logic.
So you can create something right then and there that causes it, and thereby fills in that hole. Take Act One and do Reverse Cause and Effect for that act, stating the Object of the act, the Final Effect that demonstrates the Object on screen with real actors, the Immediate Cause of that effect, the cause of that and the cause of that, etc.
Correlation does not imply causation
You keep the unnecessary at bay, taking only what you need and incorporating it, so that you stay in control of the material as you develop it. There are two-to-five sequences in an act. There are two-to-five scenes in each sequence. A scene is a complete story unit that may take place over a couple of different locations, so if your slug line changes from INT.
Now you do Reverse Cause and Effect for the first scene of the opening sequence. Now this scene will be tight, because you never allowed the unnecessary into it. So keep it tight.
Reverse Cause and Effect
Sure, you need to be able to let the scene breathe and move, but keep it lean. Then this scene will be crisp and tight, and it will be part and parcel of a tight sequence, which is part of a tight act, which is part of a tight overall script. You never let the unnecessary in. When a tailor is done making a suit, there is leftover cloth on the floor. He throws it away. Then you do Reverse Cause and Effect for the next scene, and then write it. By applying Reverse Cause and Effect to the whole script, then to each act, then to each sequence, and then to each scene you gradually assemble a script in which every part consists only of those actions that advance the plot.
By sticking with strict cause and effect, you continually eliminate the unnecessary, like a chemical process that expels undesired byproducts and retains only the desired pure product—in this case, clean, coherent, compelling, forward-moving dramatic action.
Suppose we have three young teenagers, two 14 and one Their two fathers are mobsters who run a bookie joint together and the boys are expected to join the family business. But they hate it and want to go to MIT to study robotics. Their dads are forcing them to be career criminals. They decide to rob the bookie joint to pay for college. They case the place, adding to what they already know about it.
They create a plan. Things go wrong, but they manage to heist a huge sum of crooked money. They exit the building and vanish like ghosts. They get away clean with the money. They get outside and pull off a vanishing act. They launch their robbery, but things go wrong.
They complete their plan. They case the joint and start planning. Their dads say the only way they can go to college is if they pay for it themselves. The kids get furious. The dads insist that they forget their geek nonsense and join the family business. Image courtesy of MIT. Read it from the bottom up and you get the story. The kids refuse to be bookies and want to study robotics at MIT, but their dads insist they forget that crap and join the family business, which makes them furious.
They case the operation and make a plan, then launch their robbery, but things go wrong. They get outside and vanish like ghosts. They launch their robbery and things go wrong.
- Lesson 3 – Cause and Effect Relationships
Now we want to think it through in a little more detail, fleshing out the story a bit more. They disappear outside and create a distraction to lead the chase away. The boys point at where the getaway car went and angry mobsters race after it. They force their dads to pull out the cash and bag it up.
What if they had a hostage? They grab their grandfather and put a gun to his head. What would cause them to do this, since in their planning session they swore to not hurt any of their family?
They demand the cash. They disarm him and get back to their robbery. How would they get the gun away from him? They will also need a voice-changing device so no one recognizes their voices. They create a distraction with a small hidden robot and then breech the door with a small explosion. Therefore, high debt causes slow growth. This argument by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was refuted by Paul Krugman on the basis that they got the causality backwards: Children that watch a lot of TV are the most violent.
Clearly, TV makes children more violent. This could easily be the other way round; that is, violent children like watching more TV than less violent ones. Example 4 A correlation between recreational drug use and psychiatric disorders might be either way around: Gateway drug theory may argue that marijuana usage leads to usage of harder drugs, but hard drug usage may lead to marijuana usage see also confusion of the inverse.
Indeed, in the social sciences where controlled experiments often cannot be used to discern the direction of causation, this fallacy can fuel long-standing scientific arguments.
Example 5 A historical example of this is that Europeans in the Middle Ages believed that lice were beneficial to your health, since there would rarely be any lice on sick people. The reasoning was that the people got sick because the lice left.
The real reason however is that lice are extremely sensitive to body temperature. A small increase of body temperature, such as in a feverwill make the lice look for another host. The medical thermometer had not yet been invented, so this increase in temperature was rarely noticed. Noticeable symptoms came later, giving the impression that the lice left before the person got sick.
One making an argument based on these two phenomena must however be careful to avoid the fallacy of circular cause and consequence. Poverty is a cause of lack of education, but it is not the sole cause, and vice versa.
Third factor C the common-causal variable causes both A and B[ edit ] Main article: Spurious relationship The third-cause fallacy also known as ignoring a common cause  or questionable cause  is a logical fallacy where a spurious relationship is confused for causation.
It is a variation on the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy and a member of the questionable cause group of fallacies. All of these examples deal with a lurking variablewhich is simply a hidden third variable that affects both causes of the correlation.
Example 1 Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated with waking up with a headache. Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache.
The above example commits the correlation-implies-causation fallacy, as it prematurely concludes that sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache. A more plausible explanation is that both are caused by a third factor, in this case going to bed drunkwhich thereby gives rise to a correlation. So the conclusion is false.
Correlation does not imply causation - Wikipedia
Example 2 Young children who sleep with the light on are much more likely to develop myopia in later life. Therefore, sleeping with the light on causes myopia. This is a scientific example that resulted from a study at the University of Pennsylvania Medical Center. Published in the May 13, issue of Nature the study received much coverage at the time in the popular press.
Lesson 3 – Cause and Effect Relationships
It did find a strong link between parental myopia and the development of child myopia, also noting that myopic parents were more likely to leave a light on in their children's bedroom.
Example 3 As ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning deaths increases sharply. Therefore, ice cream consumption causes drowning.
This example fails to recognize the importance of time of year and temperature to ice cream sales. Ice cream is sold during the hot summer months at a much greater rate than during colder times, and it is during these hot summer months that people are more likely to engage in activities involving water, such as swimming.
The increased drowning deaths are simply caused by more exposure to water-based activities, not ice cream.